Dr A.S.G. (Alexandra) Sarafoglou
Assistant Professor
Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences
Programme group Psychological Methods
Area of expertise: Metascience, Many-analysts approach, Preregistration, Analysis Blinding, Bayesian inference
Visiting address
- Nieuwe Achtergracht 129
Postal address
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Postbus 15906
1001 NK Amsterdam
Contact details
Social media
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Profile
My work focuses on studying methodological reforms in psychology and the social sciences and developing Bayesian statistical methods that support researchers. As a result, my research sits at the intersection of metascience, methodology, and mathematical psychology.
As a metascientist, I study preregistration and innovative methodologies, including analysis blinding and the many-analysts approach. As a methodologist, I specialize in developing techniques to compute Bayes factors, with a particular emphasis on the evaluation of ordinal hypotheses (e.g., predicting the direction of an effect). As a mathematical psychologist, I investigate individual differences in cognitive processes and how theoretical models can inform prior distributions.
Research expertise
- Metascience
- Many-analysts approach
- Preregistration
- Analysis Blinding
- Bayesian inference
Other links
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Research
Research methods
- Large team-science projects
- Bayesian cognitive modelling
- Survey studies
- Experimental studies
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Teaching
Bachelor courses
- Bayesian Statistics
Research Master courses
- Good Research Practices
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Publications
2025
- Holzmeister, F., Johannesson, M., Camerer, C. F., Chen, Y., Ho, T. H., Hoogeveen, S., Huber, J., Imai, N., Imai, T., Jin, L., Kirchler, M., Ly, A., Mandl, B., Manfredi, D., Nave, G., Nosek, B. A., Pfeiffer, T., Sarafoglou, A., Schwaiger, R., ... Dreber, A. (2025). Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market. Nature Human Behaviour, 9(2), 316-330. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02062-9
2024
- Sarafoglou, A., Bartoš, F., Stefan, A., Haaf, J. M., & Wagenmakers, E. J. (2024). “This behavior strikes us as ideal”: assessment and anticipations of Huisman (2022). Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 31, 242-248. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-023-02299-x
- Sarafoglou, A., Hoogeveen, S., van den Bergh, D., Aczel, B., Albers, C. J., Althoff, T., Botvinik-Nezer, R., Busch, N. A., Cataldo, A. M., Devezer, B., van Dongen, N. N. N., Dreber, A., Fried, E. I., Hoekstra, R., Hoffman, S., Holzmeister, F., Huber, J., Huntington-Klein, N., Ioannidis, J., ... Wagenmakers, E. J. (2024). Subjective evidence evaluation survey for many-analysts studies. Royal Society Open Science, 11(7), Article 240125. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240125
Sarafoglou, A., Kuhlmann, B. G., Aust, F., & Haaf, J. M. (2024). Refining Bayesian hierarchical MPT modeling: Integrating prior knowledge and ordinal expectations. Behavior Research Methods, 56(7), 6557-6581. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-024-02370-y [details]- Vogel, V., Hanel, P. H. P., Sarafoglou, A., & Hoogeveen, S. (2024). When Reality Meets Perception: Well-Being Effects of Objective and Subjective Person-Culture Matches in Religiosity. Social Psychological and Personality Science. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506241286548
- van den Akker, O. R., Bakker, M., van Assen, M. A. L. M., Pennington, C. R., Verweij, L., Elsherif, M. M., Claesen, A., Gaillard, S. D. M., Yeung, S. K., Frankenberger, J. L., Krautter, K., Cockcroft, J. P., Kreuer, K. S., Evans, T. R., Heppel, F. M., Schoch, S. F., Korbmacher, M., Yamada, Y., Albayrak-Aydemir, N., ... Wicherts, J. M. (2024). The Potential of Preregistration in Psychology: Assessing Preregistration Producibility and Preregistration-Study Consistency. Psychological Methods. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000687
2023
- Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., Bartoš, F., Beitner, J., De Ron, J., Gligoric, V., Kleinberg, B., Van der Cruyssen, I., van Dongen, N. N. N., van Ravenzwaaij, D., Verschuere, B., Wiechert, S., Zarzeczna, N., van Elk, M., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Većkalov, B., & The MARP Team (2023). A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being. Religion, Brain & Behavior, 13(3), 237-283. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2070255 [details]
- Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., van Elk, M., & Wagenmakers, E. J. (2023). Many-analysts religion project:reflection and conclusion. Religion, Brain and Behavior, 13(3), 356-363. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2070263
- Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., van Elk, M., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2023). Introducing the Many-Analysts Religion Project. Religion, Brain and Behavior, 13(3), 233-236. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2023.2254980 [details]
- Sarafoglou, A., Aust, F., Marsman, M., Bartoš, F., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Haaf, J. M. (2023). Multibridge: an R package to evaluate informed hypotheses in binomial and multinomial models. Behavior Research Methods, 55(8), 4343-4368. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-022-02020-1 [details]
- Sarafoglou, A., Haaf, J. M., Ly, A., Gronau, Q. F., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Marsman, M. (2023). Evaluating Multinomial Order Restrictions With Bridge Sampling. Psychological Methods, 28(2), 322-338. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000411 [details]
- Sarafoglou, A., Hoogeveen, S., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2023). Comparing Analysis Blinding With Preregistration in the Many-Analysts Religion Project. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459221128319 [details]
- Thibault, R. T., Kovacs, M., Hardwicke, T. E., Sarafoglou, A., Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Munafò, M. R. (2023). Reducing bias in secondary data analysis via an Explore and Confirm Analysis Workflow (ECAW): a proposal and survey of observational researchers. Royal Society Open Science, 10(10), Article 230568. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230568 [details]
- Wagenmakers, E.-J., Sarafoglou, A., & Aczel, B. (2023). Facing the Unknown Unknowns of Data Analysis. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 32(5), 362-368. https://doi.org/10.1177/09637214231168565 [details]
2022
- Sarafoglou, A., Kovacs, M., Bakos, B., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Aczel, B. (2022). A survey on how preregistration affects the research workflow: better science but more work. Royal Society Open Science, 9(7), Article 211997. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211997 [details]
- Sarafoglou, A., van der Heijden, A., Draws, T., Cornelisse, J., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Marsman, M. (2022). Combine Statistical Thinking With Open Scientific Practice: A Protocol of a Bayesian Research Project. Psychology Learning and Teaching, 21(2), 138-150. https://doi.org/10.1177/14757257221077307 [details]
- Schnuerch, M., Haaf, J. M., Sarafoglou, A., & Rouder, J. N. (2022). Meaningful Comparisons With Ordinal-Scale Items. Collabra: Psychology, 8, Article 38594. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.38594 [details]
2021
- Aczel, B., Szaszi, B., Nilsonne, G., van den Akker, O. R., Albers, C. J., van Assen, M. A., Bastiaansen, J. A., Benjamin, D., Boehm, U., Botvinik-Nezer, R., Bringmann, L. F., Busch, N. A., Caruyer, E., Cataldo, A. M., Cowan, N., Delios, A., van Dongen, N. N. N., Donkin, C., van Doorn, J. B., ... Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2021). Science Forum: Consensus-based guidance for conducting and reporting multi-analyst studies. eLife, 10, Article e72185. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.72185 [details]
- Armeni, K., Brinkman, L., Carlsson, R., Eerland, A., Fijten, R., Fondberg, R., Heininga, V. E., Heunis, S., Koh, W. Q., Masselink, M., Moran, N., Baoill, A. Ó., Sarafoglou, A., Schettino, A., Schwamm, H., Sjoerds, Z., Teperek, M., van den Akker, O. R., van’t Veer, A., & Zurita-Milla, R. (2021). Towards wide-scale adoption of open science practices: The role of open science communities. Science and Public Policy, 48(5), 605-611. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scab039 [details]
- Dutilh, G., Sarafoglou, A., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2021). Flexible Yet Fair: Blinding Analyses in Experimental Psychology. Synthese, 198(Supplement issue 23), 5745-5772. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/d79r8, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-019-02456-7 [details]
- Wagenmakers, E.-J., Sarafoglou, A., Aarts, S., Albers, C., Algermissen, J., Bahník, Š., van Dongen, N., Hoekstra, R., Moreau, D., van Ravenzwaaij, D., Sluga, A., Stanke, F., Tendeiro, J., & Aczel, B. (2021). Seven steps toward more transparency in statistical practice. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(11), 1473-1480. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01211-8 [details]
- van Doorn, J., van den Bergh, D., Böhm, U., Dablander, F., Derks, K., Draws, T., Etz, A., Evans, N. J., Gronau, Q. F., Haaf, J. M., Hinne, M., Kucharský, Š., Ly, A., Marsman, M., Matzke, D., Komarlu Narendra Gupta, A. R., Sarafoglou, A., Stefan, A., Voelkel, J. G., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2021). The JASP guidelines for conducting and reporting a Bayesian analysis. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 28(3), 813–826. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-020-01798-5 [details]
2020
- Aczel, B., Szaszi, B., Sarafoglou, A., Kekecs, Z., Kucharský, Š., Benjamin, D., Chambers, C. D., Fisher, A., Gelman, A., Gernsbacher, M. A., Ioannidis, J. P., Johnson, E., Jonas, K., Kousta, S., Lilienfeld, S. O., Lindsay, D. S., Morey, C. C., Munafò, M., Newell, B. R., ... Wagenmakers, E. J. (2020). Author Correction: A consensus-based transparency checklist. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(1), 120. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0812-2
- Dahrendorf, M., Hoffmann, T., Mittenbühler, M., Wiechert, S., Sarafoglou, A., Matzke, D., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). "Because it is the Right Thing to Do'': Taking Stock of the Peer Reviewers’ Openness Initiative. Journal of European Psychology Students, 11(1), 15-20. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/h39jt, https://doi.org/10.5334/jeps.506 [details]
- Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). Laypeople Can Predict Which Social-Science Studies Will Be Replicated Successfully. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 3(3), 267-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245920919667 [details]
- Ly, A., Stefan, A., van Doorn, J., Dablander, F., van den Bergh, D., Sarafoglou, A., Kucharský, S., Derks, K., Gronau, Q. F., Raj, A., Boehm, U., van Kesteren, E-J., Hinne, M., Matzke, D., Marsman, M., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). The Bayesian Methodology of Sir Harold Jeffreys as a Practical Alternative to the P Value Hypothesis Test. Computational Brain & Behavior, 3(2), 153-161. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dhb7x, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42113-019-00070-x [details]
- Sarafoglou, A., Hoogeveen, S., Matzke, D., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). Teaching Good Research Practices: Protocol of a Research Master Course. Psychology Learning and Teaching, 19(1), 46-59. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177/1475725719858807 [details]
- van den Bergh, D., van Doorn, J., Marsman, M., Draws, T., van Kesteren, E-J., Derks, K., Dablander, F., Gronau, Q. F., Kucharský, Š., Komarlu Narendra Gupta, A. R., Sarafoglou, A., Voelkel, J. G., Stefan, A., Ly, A., Hinne, M., Matzke, D., & Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). A Tutorial on Conducting and Interpreting a Bayesian ANOVA in JASP. Année Psychologique, 120(1), 73-96. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/spreb, https://doi.org/10.3917/anpsy1.201.0073 [details]
2018
- Derks, K., Burger, J., van Doorn, J., Kossakowski, J. J., Matzke, D., Atticciati, L., Beitner, J., Benzesin, V., de Bruijn, A. L., Cohen, T. R. H., Cordesius, E. P. A., van Dekken, M., Delvendahl, N., Dobbelaar, S., Groenendijk, E. R., Hermans, M. E., Hiekkaranta, A. P., Hoekstra, R. H. A., Hoffmann, A. M., ... Wagenmakers, E-J. (2018). Network Models to Organize a Dispersed Literature: The Case of Misunderstanding Analysis of Covariance. Journal of European Psychology Students, 9, 48-57. https://doi.org/10.5334/jeps.458 [details]
- Wagenmakers, E-J., Love, J., Marsman, M., Jamil, T., Ly, A., Verhagen, J., Selker, R., Gronau, Q. F., Dropmann, D., Boutin, B., Meerhoff, F., Knight, P., Raj, A., van Kesteren, E-J., van Doorn, J., Šmíra, M., Epskamp, S., Etz, A., Matzke, D., ... Morey, R. D. (2018). Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 58-76. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1323-7 [details]
- Wagenmakers, E.-J., Dutilh, G., & Sarafoglou, A. (2018). The Creativity-Verification Cycle in Psychological Science: New Methods to Combat Old Idols. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 13(4), 418-427. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618771357 [details]
2017
- Gronau, Q. F., Sarafoglou, A., Matzke, D., Ly, A., Boehm, U., Marsman, M., Leslie, D. S., Forster, J. J., Wagenmakers, E-M., & Steingroever, H. (2017). A tutorial on bridge sampling. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 81, 80-97. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2017.09.005 [details]
2023
- Bartoš, F., Sarafoglou, A. S. G., Godmann, H. R., Sahrani, A., Klein Leunk, D., Gui, P. Y., Voss, D., Ullah, K., Zoubek, M. J., Nippold, F., Aust, F., Vieira, F. F., Islam, C.-G., Zoubek, A. J., Shabani, S., Petter, J., Roos, I. B., Finnemann, A. T. K., Lob, A. B., ... Wagenmakers, E. M. (2023). Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips. (pp. 1-12). ArXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.04153
2022
- Wagenmakers, E-J., Sarafoglou, A., & Aczel, B. (2022). One statistical analysis must not rule them all. Nature, 605(7910), 423-425. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01332-8 [details]
2020
- Aczel, B., Szaszi, B., Sarafoglou, A., Kekecs, Z., Kucharský, Š., Benjamin, D., Chambers, C. D., Fisher, A., Gelman, A., Gernsbacher, M. A., Ioannidis, J. P., Johnson, E., Jonas, K., Kousta, S., Lilienfeld, S. O., Lindsay, D. S., Morey, C. C., Munafò, M., Newell, B. R., ... Wagenmakers, E-J. (2020). A consensus-based transparency checklist. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(1), 4-6. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0772-6 [details]
Others
- van Doorn, J. (organiser), Wagenmakers, E.-J. (organiser), Matzke, D. (organiser), Ly, A. (organiser) & Sarafoglou, A. (organiser) (26-8-2019 - 30-8-2019). Ninth Annual JAGS and WinBUGS Workshop: Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science (organising a conference, workshop, ...).
- van Doorn, J. (organiser), Wagenmakers, E.-J. (organiser), Sarafoglou, A. (organiser) & Morey, R. D. (organiser) (22-8-2019 - 23-8-2019). Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing (organising a conference, workshop, ...).
2023
- Sarafoglou, A. (2023). Good research practices. [Thesis, fully internal, Universiteit van Amsterdam]. [details]
2022
- Sarafoglou, A. S. G. (14-11-2022). Compressed data/materials/ethics/code folders. Universiteit van Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.21942/uva.21550629.v1
2018
- Sarafoglou, A. S. G. & Marsman, M. (7-3-2018). Assignments Bayesian Statistics 2018. Universiteit van Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.21942/uva.5955922.v1
- Sarafoglou, A. S. G. & Marsman, M. (6-3-2018). Final Grades BayesStats 2018. Universiteit van Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.21942/uva.5952136.v1
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Ancillary activities
- No ancillary activities
Sarafoglou, A., Kuhlmann, B. G., Aust, F., & Haaf, J. M. (2024). Refining Bayesian hierarchical MPT modeling: Integrating prior knowledge and ordinal expectations. Behavior Research Methods, 56(7), 6557-6581.